VS-oscilloscope: A new tool to parameterize tree radial growth based on climate conditions

It is generally assumed in dendroecological studies that annual tree-ring growth is adequately determined by a linear function of local or regional precipitation and temperature with a set of coefficients that are temporally invariant. However, various researchers have maintained that tree-ring records are the result of multivariate, often nonlinear biological and physical processes. To describe critical processes linking climate variables with tree-ring formation, the process-based tree-ring Vaganov–Shashkin model (VS-model) was successfully used. However, the VS-model is a complex tool requiring a considerable number of model parameters that should be re-estimated for each forest stand. Here we present a new visual approach of process-based tree-ring model parameterization (the so-called VS-oscilloscope) which allows the simulation of tree-ring growth and can be easily used by researchers and students. The VS-oscilloscope was tested on tree-ring data for two species (Larix gmeliniiand Picea obovata) growing in the permafrost zone of Central Siberia. The parameterization of the VS-model provided highly significant positive correlations (p < 0.0001) between simulated growth curves and original tree-ring chronologies for the period 1950–2009. The model outputs have shown differences in seasonal tree-ring growth between species that were well supported by the field observations. To better understand seasonal tree-ring growth and to verify the VS-model findings, a multi-year natural field study is needed, including seasonal observation of the thermo-hydrological regime of the soil, duration and rate of tracheid development, as well as measurements of their anatomical features.     

Large-scale,millennial-length temperature reconstructions from tree-rings

Over the past two decades, the dendroclimate community has produced various annually resolved, warm season temperature reconstructions for the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. Here we compare these tree-ring based reconstructions back to 831 CE and present a set of basic metrics to provide guidance for non-specialists on their interpretation and use. We specifically draw attention to (i) the imbalance between (numerous) short and (few) long site chronologies incorporated into the hemispheric means, (ii) the beneficial effects of including maximum latewood density chronologies in the recently published reconstructions, (iii) a decrease in reconstruction covariance prior to 1400 CE, and (iv) the varying amplitudes and trends of reconstructed temperatures over the past 1100 years. Whereas the reconstructions agree on several important features, such as warmth during medieval times and cooler temperatures in the 17th and 19th centuries, they still exhibit substantial differences during 13th and 14th centuries. We caution users who might consider combining the reconstructions through simple averaging that all reconstructions share some of the same underlying tree-ring data, and provide four recommendations to guide future efforts to better understand past millennium temperature variability.     

Consistency of growth response to precipitation by Pseudopiptadenia contorta in two Atlantic Forest remnants

Tree growth sensitivity to climate can vary over space and time. This variability generates inconsistency in growth response to climate, which makes it difficult to assess the effects of past climate and global climate change on tree growth. A previous short-term study of Pseudopiptadenia contorta found a consistent growth response to climate in distinct locations, which raises the question, is the growth response of P. contorta to climate consistent over the long-term? We aimed to assess whether there is a common pattern of variation in tree-ring width, build tree-ring width chronologies, and verify the consistency of the climate-growth response of P. contorta in two Atlantic Forest remnants. Wood samples were collected in Reserva Biológica de Poço das Antas (RBPA) and Reserva Biológica de Tinguá (RBT) in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Conventional dendrochronology methods were used for cross-dating, to build chronologies and to assess the climate-growth relationship. A common growth pattern was detected for P. contorta, and two tree-ring width chronologies were constructed. A congruent growth response was found for trees of RBPA and RBT to annual and spring precipitation as well as precipitation in the rainy months. Other climate-growth relationships were detected with other precipitation and temperature variables. Considering that P. contorta is a widespread species, occurring in other Brazilian biomes and forest formations, it is a promising model for developing further dendrochronological research including regional networks of replicated site chronologies, which could facilitate the reconstruction of historical climatic series and predictions of future impacts of climate change in tropical areas.     

Separating the climatic signal from tree-ring width and maximum latewood density records

We propose a technique for separating the climatic signal which is contained in two tree-ring parameters widely used in dendroclimatology. The method is based on the removal of the relationship between tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum latewood density (MXD) observed for narrow tree rings from high latitudes. The new technique is tested on data from three larch stands located along the northern timberline in Eurasia. Correlations were calculated between the temperatures of pentads (five consecutive days), TRW chronologies and MXD chronologies calculated according to the standard and proposed methods. The analysis confirms the great importance of summer temperature for tree radial growth and tree-ring formation. TRW is positively correlated with the temperature of four to eight pentads (depending on the region) at the beginning of the growth season, but MXD as obtained by the standard technique is correlated with temperature over a much longer period. For maximum density series from which the relationship between MXD and TRW has been removed (MXD′), there is a clear correlation with temperatures in the second part of the growing season. These results are consistent with the known dynamics of tree-ring growth in high latitudes and mechanisms of tree-ring formation.     

The potential of generalized additive modelling for the prediction of radial growth of Norway spruce from Central Germany

During the past decades managed forest ecosystems in Central Europe underwent vast changes, induced by extreme climate conditions and occasionally adverse forest management. Tree ring width patterns mirror these changes and thus have been widely examined as environmental archives and reliable empirical data sources in ‘tree growth modelling’. Dendrochronologists often suppose linear co-variation among the covariates, variable independence and homoscedasticity. Conventionally, these assumptions were achieved by eliminating biological age trends (detrending) and removing the autocorrelation from the time series (pre-whitening). Particularly detrending might be biased according to the scientific problem and sometimes inflexible age models. In this study, we tackle these issues and examine the suitability of a flexible Generalized Additive Model (GAM) on recently developed tree ring width time series of 30 Norway spruce stands (Picea abies [L.] H. Karst) from Central Germany.The model was established to simultaneously cope with the mentioned detrending issue, to unravel nonlinear climate-growth relationships and to predict mean ring width time series for spruce stands in the region. Particularly the latter was of primary interest, since recent forest planning relies on static yield tables that often underestimate the actual growth.The model reliably captured the empirical data, indicated by a small Generalized Cross Validation criterion (GCV = 0.045) and a deviance explained of 88.6 %. The flexible additive smoothers accounted for the social status of individual trees, captured low frequency variations of changing growth conditions adequately and displayed a rather flat biological age trend. The radial increment responded positively to summer season precipitation of the current and previous year. Positive temperature responses were found during the early vegetation period, whereas high summer season temperatures negatively affected the radial growth. The seasonal transition from spring to summer in June induced a shift in the climate response of the linear predictor, leading to a distinct negative effect of temperature and a no-role of precipitation on the linear predictor.Most important, utilizing the calibrated GAM for the purely climate-driven prediction of mean ring width time series from five independent spruce sites revealed proper coherencies. Herein, the mean ring width for sites located within the climatic-optimum for spruce growth were more exactly predicted than for sites with adverse spruce growth conditions. In addition, large mean ring widths were systematically underestimated, whereas small mean ring widths were precisely predicted. Overall, we strongly recommend GAMs as a powerful tool for the investigation of nonlinear climate-growth relationships and for the prediction of radial growth in managed forest ecosystems.     

European beech in its northeasternmost stands in Europe: Varying climate-growth relationships among generations and diameter classes

Age, genetics and social status of trees affect their sensitivity to environmental factors, and information about such effects is needed for comprehensive assessment of growth potential. Climatic sensitivity of radial increment (i.e., tree-ring width) of introduced European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) of different generations and social status, growing in its northeasternmost stands in Europe, was studied by dendroclimatological methods. At present, the studied stands occur outside of the natural distribution area of the species, providing opportunity to study adaptability and potential growth of beech in novel environments under changing climate. The sensitivity of radial growth to climatic factors was modulated by the generation and social status (size) of trees. The first generation trees, which were propagated from the material transferred from the northern Germany, were highly sensitive to climatic factors and showed wide spectrum of responses. The dominant trees were particularly sensitive to June precipitation, indicating sensitivity to water deficit in summer. The suppressed trees were mainly sensitive to temperature in the dormant period. Tree-ring width of the second generation trees, which were propagated from the first generation stands, was mainly affected by water deficit in summer, yet the local factors, modulated the mechanisms of response. In one stand, tree-ring width was affected by conditions during the formation of tree-ring, indicating direct influence of weather conditions on xylogenesis. In the other stand, tree-ring width was correlated to weather conditions in the preceding year, suggesting influence via carbohydrate reserves. The effect of social status on climatic sensitivity in the second generation stands was considerably weaker, likely due to the natural and anthropogenic selection of the material best adapted for local conditions. The effect of climatic factors on radial growth of beech has shifted during the 20th century. The effect of autumn temperature has weakened, likely due to warming; the effect of factors related to water deficit in summer has intensified that could be related to both, changes in climate and ageing. The observed climate-growth relationships suggested that conditions in winter have become suitable for beech, yet careful selection of sites/regions with appropriate hydrological conditions appear necessary to counteract the increasing effect of water deficit, hence to ensure productivity of future beech sites in Latvia.     

Consistency pays: sex differences and fitness consequences of behavioural specialization in a wide-ranging seabird

Specialists and generalists often coexist within a single population, but the biological drivers of individual strategies are not fully resolved. When sexes differ in their foraging strategy, this can lead them to different environmental conditions and stability across their habitat range. As such, sexual segregation, combined with dominance, may lead to varying levels of specialization between the sexes. Here, we examine spatial and temporal niche width (intraindividual variability in aspects of foraging behaviour) of male and female black-browed albatrosses (Thalassarche melanophrys), and its consequences for fitness. We show that females, where maximum foraging range is under fluctuating selection, exhibit more variable behaviours and appear more generalist than males, who are under directional selection to forage close to the colony. However within each sex, successful birds had a much narrower niche width across most behaviours, suggesting some specialization is adaptive in both sexes. These results demonstrate that while there are sex differences in niche width, the fitness benefit of specialization in spatial distribution is strong in this wide-ranging seabird.     

Morphological indices and otolith microstructure of Atlantic croaker,Micropogonias undulatus,as indicators of habitat quality along an estuarine pollution gradient

Synopsis Atlantic croaker, Micropogonias undulatus, sampled from a transect along a pollution gradient show a trend of declining growth and physical condition. This trend is apparent in the mean size of 0-group croaker, in their recent growth rate measured by marginal otolith increment widths, in longer term growth rate as indicated by relative otolith weights, and in general physical condition as measured by an index of condition of the caudal fin. We suggest that these measures are indicators of stress associated with environmental conditions. Because croaker from different positions along the pollution gradient were distinguishable, it appears that they remain for extended periods within areas of degraded environmental quality.     

Sexual selection and ecological generalism are correlated in antbirds

Sexual selection is thought to counteract natural selection on the grounds that secondary sexual traits are inherently costly and evolve at the expense of naturally selected traits. It is therefore commonly predicted that increased sexual selection is associated with decreased physiological tolerance or ecological plasticity. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we test this prediction by exploring relationships between traits assumed to be sexually selected (plumage dichromatism and song structure) and traits assumed to be naturally selected (altitudinal range and habitat range) in a diverse family of tropical birds. Contrary to expectations, we find that taxa with higher levels of dichromatism, and lower song pitch, occupy a wider variety of habitats and elevations. In other words, indices of sexual selection are positively related to two standard measures of ecological generalism. One interpretation of this pattern is that sexual selection combines synergistically with natural selection, thereby increasing physiological tolerance or the propensity to adapt to novel environments. An alternative possibility is that ecological generalism increases population density, which in turn promotes sexual selection in the form of greater competition for mates. Overall, our results suggest that a synergism between natural selection and sexual selection may be widespread, but the processes underlying this pattern remain to be investigated.